Predict China's economic situation, 2010

 2010
predict China's economic situation in China Zhou Qiren
out of the financial crisis, the current proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy will end, just out of the way, steps and a portfolio problem .
flow velocity of the flow of money changing, to our CEOs of these enterprises when making investment decisions has caused great difficulties. We need to pay attention to three levels:
First, the Chinese people after years of income, real needs of a structural demand for long-term changes in
some, I heard the boss happy network introduction, why did I think to do this thing? because we are now a lot of people are white-collar workers, white-collar workers in the office is a very hard day's work, the time and very tight. He did a lot of time to rest, but he has a friend, this desire to make friends, how to solve? through this online interaction. The demand for proven, when many people become white-collar workers, as the so-called middle class, he to increase the time cost, time costs does not mean that human nature changed, he wants to meet friends, see, what wish did not reduce the interaction, how to achieve? I listen to listen to the truth, this is real demand. China 200 million migrant workers, migrant workers do I believe it has the real needs of this matter.
real needs in the marketplace, but it can not be directly expressed, the expression of it through money, but money was the relative price of our guidelines, it generates the real needs in the last couple of years how to express them? how to distinguish between the information? I think the big problem the last two years.
Second, the currency would push up the general price level, when doing business models Wang Jun said
particular attention to one of his most difficult decision is the can not make a large investment to the war movie, can not look good. then you will want to count the budget vote, because the producers are selling tickets to share 43% of the final movie, so you must be a way around the cost you know the total addition of 0.43 How much income, so the box office if not more than 200 million are afraid to take the market, you must now make an annual natural growth included, the growth rate of nominal money. In other words, you can not think this is the highest box office this year, 1.5 million, there are 230 million next year, his speech is the day China's best box office in 2010 will probably reach 500 million, 7 years ago, that is, 30 million box office champion. China's growth??
third, pushing the currency to bring the relative price changes affect the flow of capital
as long as relative prices change, investment and consumption behavior will change, it will bring many new opportunities. you think about money into the stock market stock market up, and into the real estate property to come up, we have seen this the effect of currency movements, as to where to stream it in the end? This is a result of competition. Therefore, we have not found people in China today heroes story, why tell stories? my understanding that the money should talk over story , let the honey flow to me, this is the meaning of today's story.
but be aware that when we do business must pay attention to two indicators that you use the name of money or real money, with the constant price calculation or use the variable price calculated? variable price calculation must be multi-operator, or you will get stuck so to their own, actually exceeds the nominal money, so after trillions of currency introduced to the general level of prices will push higher. When we look to the future, when, whether we want people to vote the investment company or a company, this factor should be put to.
is true as long as the long-term needs of the business response to this demand there is hope for some But the problem is that very large short-term problems, because you do a real demand to meet it must be difficult when you encounter difficulties if other opportunities are very good, the temptation is very large, this is the trouble the next few years. As long as sudden changes in relative prices, an opportunity came, he really count the money you see, you think you play this thing Ku Haha playing or not playing?
last year to see what happens, I'll probably mention three judgments.
First, rapid economic growth this year will not have a big problem
you see this account is very simple 30% increase in investment, consumption increased by 15% to 16%, 20% drop in import and export of these three the number added together to keep this year's 8% GDP growth.
consumed not go next year, many people say that consumption is weak, is not a good analysis, China's consumption is not really weak, car, house selling so well, how can you say weak consumer? China is still not the right path of goods and services, have a good LO's goods and services, China's consumption will be busy, and I believe it.
as long as the rebound in exports, it seems that exports will pick up, because the United States as long as a stable, a stable Europe, China's exports will be up, because it is fundamental that we are at most 10% of the wage levels in developed countries, the gap is large enough, comparative advantage is large enough, even if RBI discount things that trade protectionism, but also great to do business.
I now feel more and more highly dependent on exports can not be critical, the export have to export, because the transaction costs of export business, the business network is very easy to use. Our reform was to some extent in recent years we have masked the high export and domestic reform is difficult, more difficult for domestic business confidence? do a file you have to much to drink the wine business? international business do not drink, send a fax to do, this is the difference. then you say you do? whenever the opportunity to export or exports, it should not grant this thing, this is a comparative advantage. So I think that if exports become negative from negative 20% 10% -5% 0 even change next year, GDP should be 10% to 12% growth.
even some unexpected things, such as Europe, Bank of America and making a sort hole, another shock, China, in fact, there flac. China's GDP, fiscal deficit, which is now in all major countries, so money is still good. the Government's capital is still pretty thick, you can re-issue of bonds, you can then print the money.
second to support the foundation of our economic growth rate has not changed
1. comparative advantages of globalization, this does not completely disappear. After this shock, adjustments will be back in a great extent.
2. China has a huge industry transfer opportunities. You see this wave of shock after the West, I now see a lot of opinions on places, there are no cars on the highway, in Zhejiang, in the east, in the heart of Jiangsu scared go there several times, all public service vehicles, I saw a truck to applause. you take a look to the west, to Chongqing, Chengdu to look very prosperous, the Chinese industrial transfer of this show, here called a bird cage stand, here called the search for new low-cost areas to which GDP growth can hang things on several points.
3. accelerating urbanization. Now cities are traffic jams, traffic jam, who also met the Depression? urban infrastructure so you do it, not a big mistake, you it to the subway station, this is not a big mistake. because of the Depression, when it is in short supply until the economy comes back a little it can not become the bottleneck Well, urbanization, investment is a huge amount of investment, a small area can cast a lot of money, see Tokyo to know that China still early. Tokyo the most densely populated areas, underground subway 5 layers, 5 layers below the 6th floor of the MTR underground highway repair, the top layer 100, 200 storey building, it is said that the horizontal flow into the vertical, not from the suburbs to live in the city to work, down from a high-rise office and then go downstairs to the cinema, into the restaurant, and into the subway. with high-speed elevator to take people to organize themselves, a new Tokyo pilot project of urbanization. you look at where China's land small population, how much money needs to go in this kind of thing? so I do not recommend investing too easily granted, as long as the return on investment for your vote, anyway, China has changed into a modern nation, you have to take place in the land of steel inside, put the cement, put the stone, and put it, early yet, do not have to worry about .2008 in October I thought of the possibility of recession is equal to 0, and now this variable I can not stop to be optimistic.
Third, the global recovery
structural imbalance will not like this world in the past, can not put a financial crisis after it is fully transferred over. now discuss the U.S. how to raise savings rates, how to increase consumption in China, the words can be said, but not easy to change habits, and Chinese students in the United States you see him on that income to the savings rate is high, the U.S. professors do not understand you how to live in? also bought a car, and also bought a TV, a bank account there are still so much money. You see the Latin American money? he had no bank accounts, there is a money to buy beer to drink a repeat. this kind of thing you think you can change the financial crisis? I do not believe it. So with this structure will be some changes before the crisis. For instance, China will attach great importance to domestic policy, but not all at once to this The basic disk has changed.
is the first judge to determine government policy, the Chinese government first, or to maintain growth, washed down in 2008 or to give them a big psychological pressure on decision-making. China and Deng Xiaoping's phrase first to maintain growth, but also worried about the costs to maintain growth and guard against, the impact of the imbalance.
The second is called the adjustment of economic structure and growth pattern, or a long-term slogan. The essence of the action is not be so much, it is a slow change. where the first will have the opportunity, but the project level, can not see too much of these opportunities. What the new energy, especially low-carbon, this is a very difficult subject. But growth, development, employment, or a basic theme. on this stage have to get over it, so we make business decisions, it may have some effect.
third is deep-seated reform of China's real through the re- define the right to change the income distribution, this potential is very great. I do research in Chengdu, the transfer of land rights of farmers, you can give him a good definition, which can release a large piece of income. these things open the possibility of a global small because the government was too busy. are likely to form local climate, the formation of the local impact of climate on a global concern.
Finally, the so-called macro-control will have great flexibility. But the CPI is negative, so It does not matter. But the real hub of CPI up, true to the market price of assets to be too far, I believe it will absorb the lessons learned there, so do not hear the slogan, saying that change will become. as long as the phenomenon it will take measures. on the macro-control will be very sudden, this is of my policy.
So I think the growth rate of the economic situation there is no problem, then we have the so-called imbalance depends heavily on exports, depends on the globalization, while increasing domestic investment, increase domestic consumption, about such a situation.
dominated government or to maintain growth, taking into account the consequences of the elimination of the bailout out, and so many contradictions sound, there will be a lot of conflicting information, the next few years will come out at the macro level, we have to assess the situation and a good look.
(According to Professor Zhou Qiren Legend Investment Conference in speech transcripts excerpts, without my review)